Cred ca am mai povestit cadva despre orasele-fantoma din China. In urmatorii 10 ani, daca istoria se va scrie dupa planurile celor care conduc acum de la Beijing si Shanghai, vom asista la un experiment social fascinant (mutari masive de la tara la oras). Pana atunci insa, lucrurile – asa cum le-ntelegem din filmul prezentat – arata destul de urat …
January 12, 2015
Ce-i atrage pe turisti la un oras-fantoma?
Posted by Calin Diaconu under Economice | Tags: China, china ghost cities, ghost city, housing bubble in china, orase-fantoma in china |Leave a Comment
March 16, 2013
De ce ne intereseaza fenomenele demografice?
Posted by Calin Diaconu under Economice | Tags: China, china si lumea, date demografice china, demografice, demografie, economia de coasta a chinei, migratia chineza, migratia romana, politica demografica a chinezilor |Leave a Comment
Pentru ca ele exprima pe de-o parte politici (ale clasei conducatoare), iar pe de alta parte sunt raspunsul masselor la aceste politici, ce intelege omul de rand ca are de facut …
Odata cu “deschiderea Chinei” catre economia mondiala, intreaga coasta de sud su est a inceput sa se “incinga” de fabrici (productie industriala), poluare si bineinteles, resursa umana – atrasa de mirajul unui trai mai bun.
Daca intr-o luna poti castiga cat intr-un an, ce vei face, ştiind că timpul ţi-e limitat, iar familia are nevoie de ajutorul tău acum? Reacţia chinezului de rând a fost una normală … s-au deplasat masiv spre locurile care promiteau eliberarea de spectrul foamei, de sărăcie.
Cum ar arăta o asemenea analiză pentru România, când ştim că avem câteva milioane plecati in Italia, Spania, Franţa? … Diferenţa principala e ca aceia se vor contopi in noile lor vetre, uitand (in maxim trei generatii) de limba si origini, iar tara e fara doar si poate mai saraca fara locuitorii ei …
January 29, 2012
Siria impartita, imparte marile puteri …
Posted by Calin Diaconu under Comentarii din Cetate | Tags: Bashar al-Assad, China, Damascus, iran, liga araba, misiune liga araba in siria, revolte in siria, rusia, Siria, siria onu rezolutie |Leave a Comment
In timp ce Liga Araba si-a retras delegatia de observatori din Siria, violentele au crescut si odata cu ele numarul mortilor. Reuters monitorizeaza atent fenomenul (vezi graficul de mai jos). Sigur, jocul statistic cu mortii datorati violentei umane ne provoaca furnicaturi si scarba, dar ne pune pe ganduri – si probabil acesta este sensul efortului prestigioasei agentii de stiri …
China a fost prima care s-a impotrivit interventiei de tip “libian”, Rusia i s-a alaturat. Franta e puterea care cere cel mai hotarat ca vocea armelor rele sa fie acoperita de vocea armelor bune.
Siria poate sa apara tot mai clar ca simpla etapa in drumul spre Iran … pentru ca ne intrebam de unde au aparut rebelii, si mai ales cine i-a inarmat?!
Drumul caderii lui Assad fiind ireversibil si absolut previzibil, ne framanta doua intrebari:
1. Care e raportul dintre rapiditatea interventiei externe si bogatiile solului unui stat?
2. Poate o pozitie strategica a unui stat sa compenseze lipsa resurselor naturale ca avantaj competitiv si atractivitate?
Asteptam Rezolutia din partea ONU.

Mortii Siriei nu sunt de ajuns pentru o interventie armata. Bogatiile naturale ar fi grabit procesul?
January 6, 2012
Petrolul Iranului asigura (deocamdata) pacea in Asia
Posted by Calin Diaconu under Economice | Tags: Asia, China, coreea de sud, iran, Japonia, Ormuz, Pace in Asia, Petrolul Iranului, Strait of Hormuz, Stramtoarea Ormuz |[4] Comments
Iranul exporta 2,2 milioane de barili de petrol pe zi.
La un pret de 100 de dolari/baril, asta inseamna 220.000.000 USD zilnic …
China cumpara o treime din totalul exporturilor iraniene.
Statele Unite doresc ca Lumea sa aplice sanctiuni Iranului. Sa nu le mai cumpere nimeni petrolul.
Pe langa China, Japonia si Coreea de Sud cumpara petrol iranian. Nici unul din statele-fanion ale Asiei nu ar avea cum sa fie de acord cu masurile nerealiste propuse de americani.
Iar Iranul, mai in gluma mai in serios – ameninta la randul lui ca va inchide Stramtoarea Ormuz. 40% din petrolul care e transportat pe mare trece prin aceast loc strategic. Cu alte cuvinte, daca ne blocati voi pe noi, va blocam si noi pe voi.
Jocul de-a amenintarile va fi in mod normal temperat de nevoia de petrol a principalelor economii asiatice, dar trebuie urmarite cu toata atentia miscarile de trupe din Golf …
December 24, 2011
Coreea lui Kim – o tara “stabila politic”, cu orice pret!
Posted by Calin Diaconu under Comentarii din Cetate | Tags: Asia, China, Coreea de Nord, coreea de sud, Democracy, Democracy Index, Economist Intelligence Unit, kim jong un, United States |Leave a Comment
Se pare ca nord-coreenii au tinut ascunsa vreo doua zile realitatea mortii Conducatorului Iubit. Iar Marile Puteri au tremurat la propriu, caci vorbim de o putere nucleara ramasa temporar fara stapan (leaderless nuclear power).
In paralel, toti ochii sunt atintiti asupra Chinei: nu numai din ratiuni economice – fiind cel mai mare creditor al Planetei -, ci si politic, ca factor de stabilitate al celui mai mare continent. Cum se va implica ea in sprijinul tanarului Kim Jong-un? Se pare ca trebuie sa o faca, pentru a evita incoltirea vreunui gand de unificare sub evidenta hegemonie a Coreei de Sud! Cum s-ar simti China cu un ghimpe american infipt direct in coasta sa?
Cuvantul de ordine – este “pastrarea status-quo-ului” – si nici nu poate fi vorba de aducerea in discutie a unei “primaveri nord-coreene”. Jocul politic al stabilitatii in zona are urmatoarele coordonate simple: Coreea de Nord are rolul unui vecin periculos, impredictibil, controlat exclusiv de China, gata oricand sa santajeze Sudul (si prin aceasta pe Americani) pentru un bol de orez in plus … China este cea care patroneaza aceasta situatie, fiind singura putere de care Dinastia Kim asculta cu supusenie, in felul acesta avand un rol mediator puternic in Asia!
Pentru ca ne intereseaza evolutia democratiei in general dar mai ales in criza, pentru ca anul acesta va ramane in istorie ca anul “revolutiilor arabe”, preluam mai jos un tabel al The Economist Intelligence Unit interesant de observat ca Romania mai are, la randul ei, pasi importanti de facut pentru ajunge in zona selecta de sus!
Folosind o metodologie care interogheaza cinci atribute ale vietii publice, The Economist stabileste o ierarhie a tarilor in functie de indicele lor democratic … Coreea de Nord este cel mai “autoritar” regim al planetei, dar asta nu pare sa supere (am vazut mai sus de ce) pe nimeni.
The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index is based on five categories: electoral process and pluralism; civil liberties; the functioning of government; political participation; and political culture. The overall index of democracy, on a 0 to 10 scale, is based on the ratings for 60 indicators grouped in the five categories. The overall index is the simple average of the five category indexes. A three-point scoring system for the 60 indicators is used. The category indexes are based on the sum of the indicator scores in the category, converted to a 0 to 10 scale. Countries are placed within one of four types of regimes: “full democracies” (scores of 8 to 10); “flawed democracies”—scores of 6 to 7.9; “hybrid regimes”—scores of 4 to 5.9; “authoritarian regimes”—scores below 4.
Democracy Index 2011 | |||||
Country | 2011 rank | 2011 score | 2010 rank | 2010 score | 2011 regime type |
Norway | 1 | 9.80 | 1 | 9.80 | Full democracy |
Iceland | 2 | 9.65 | 2 | 9.65 | Full democracy |
Denmark | 3 | 9.52 | 3 | 9.52 | Full democracy |
Sweden | 4 | 9.50 | 4 | 9.50 | Full democracy |
New Zealand | 5 | 9.26 | 5 | 9.26 | Full democracy |
Australia | 6 | 9.22 | 6 | 9.22 | Full democracy |
Switzerland | 7 | 9.09 | 8 | 9.09 | Full democracy |
Canada | 8 | 9.08 | 9 | 9.08 | Full democracy |
Finland | 9 | 9.06 | 7 | 9.19 | Full democracy |
Netherlands | 10 | 8.99 | 10 | 8.99 | Full democracy |
Luxembourg | 11 | 8.88 | 11 | 8.88 | Full democracy |
Ireland | 12 | 8.56 | 12 | 8.79 | Full democracy |
Austria | 13 | 8.49 | 13 | 8.49 | Full democracy |
Germany | 14 | 8.34 | 14 | 8.38 | Full democracy |
Malta | 15 | 8.28 | 15 | 8.28 | Full democracy |
Czech Republic | 16 | 8.19 | 16 | 8.19 | Full democracy |
Uruguay | 17 | 8.17 | 21 | 8.10 | Full democracy |
United Kingdom | 18 | 8.16 | 19 | 8.16 | Full democracy |
United States | 19 | 8.11 | 17 | 8.18 | Full democracy |
Costa Rica | 20 | 8.10 | 25 | 8.04 | Full democracy |
Japan | 21 | 8.08 | 22 | 8.08 | Full democracy |
South Korea | 22 | 8.06 | 20 | 8.11 | Full democracy |
Belgium | 23 | 8.05 | 23 | 8.05 | Full democracy |
Mauritius | 24 | 8.04 | 24 | 8.04 | Full democracy |
Spain | 25 | 8.02 | 18 | 8.16 | Full democracy |
Cape Verde | 26 | 7.92 | 27 | 7.94 | Flawed democracy |
Portugal | 27 | 7.81 | 26 | 8.02 | Flawed democracy |
South Africa | 28 | 7.79 | 30 | 7.79 | Flawed democracy |
France | 29 | 7.77 | 31 | 7.77 | Flawed democracy |
Slovenia | 30 | 7.76 | 32 | 7.69 | Flawed democracy |
Italy | 31 | 7.74 | 29 | 7.83 | Flawed democracy |
Greece | 32 | 7.65 | 28 | 7.92 | Flawed democracy |
Botswana | 33 | 7.63 | 35 | 7.63 | Flawed democracy |
Estonia | 34 | 7.61 | 33 | 7.68 | Flawed democracy |
Chile | 35 | 7.54 | 34 | 7.67 | Flawed democracy |
Israel | 36 | 7.53 | 37 | 7.48 | Flawed democracy |
Taiwan | 37 | 7.46 | 36 | 7.52 | Flawed democracy |
Slovakia | 38 | 7.35 | 38 | 7.35 | Flawed democracy |
India | 39 | 7.30 | 40 | 7.28 | Flawed democracy |
Cyprus | 40 | 7.29 | 39 | 7.29 | Flawed democracy |
Lithuania | 41 | 7.24 | 41 | 7.24 | Flawed democracy |
Timor-Leste | 42 | 7.22 | 42 | 7.22 | Flawed democracy |
Trinidad and Tobago | 43 | 7.16 | 45 | 7.16 | Flawed democracy |
Jamaica | 44 | 7.13 | 44 | 7.21 | Flawed democracy |
Poland | 45 | 7.12 | 48 | 7.05 | Flawed democracy |
Brazil | =45 | 7.12 | 47 | 7.12 | Flawed democracy |
Panama | 47 | 7.08 | 46 | 7.15 | Flawed democracy |
Latvia | 48 | 7.05 | 49 | 7.05 | Flawed democracy |
Hungary | 49 | 7.04 | 43 | 7.21 | Flawed democracy |
Mexico | 50 | 6.93 | 50 | 6.93 | Flawed democracy |
Argentina | 51 | 6.84 | 51 | 6.84 | Flawed democracy |
Bulgaria | 52 | 6.78 | 52 | 6.84 | Flawed democracy |
Croatia | 53 | 6.73 | 53 | 6.81 | Flawed democracy |
Suriname | 54 | 6.65 | 54 | 6.65 | Flawed democracy |
Colombia | 55 | 6.63 | 57 | 6.55 | Flawed democracy |
Peru | 56 | 6.59 | 63 | 6.40 | Flawed democracy |
Sri Lanka | 57 | 6.58 | 55 | 6.64 | Flawed democracy |
Thailand | 58 | 6.55 | 58 | 6.55 | Flawed democracy |
Romania | 59 | 6.54 | 56 | 6.60 | Flawed democracy |
Indonesia | 60 | 6.53 | 60 | 6.53 | Flawed democracy |
El Salvador | 61 | 6.47 | 61 | 6.47 | Flawed democracy |
Paraguay | 62 | 6.40 | 62 | 6.40 | Flawed democracy |
Mali | 63 | 6.36 | 79 | 6.01 | Flawed democracy |
Serbia | 64 | 6.33 | 65 | 6.33 | Flawed democracy |
Lesotho | =64 | 6.33 | 77 | 6.02 | Flawed democracy |
Moldova | =64 | 6.33 | 66 | 6.33 | Flawed democracy |
Papua New Guinea | 67 | 6.32 | 59 | 6.54 | Flawed democracy |
Namibia | 68 | 6.24 | 69 | 6.23 | Flawed democracy |
Mongolia | 69 | 6.23 | 64 | 6.36 | Flawed democracy |
Dominican Republic | 70 | 6.20 | 70 | 6.20 | Flawed democracy |
Malaysia | 71 | 6.19 | 71 | 6.19 | Flawed democracy |
Zambia | =71 | 6.19 | 91 | 5.68 | Flawed democracy |
Macedonia | 73 | 6.16 | 73 | 6.16 | Flawed democracy |
Montenegro | 74 | 6.15 | 68 | 6.27 | Flawed democracy |
Philippines | 75 | 6.12 | 74 | 6.12 | Flawed democracy |
Benin | 76 | 6.06 | 72 | 6.17 | Flawed democracy |
Guyana | 77 | 6.05 | 75 | 6.05 | Flawed democracy |
Ghana | 78 | 6.02 | 78 | 6.02 | Flawed democracy |
Ukraine | 79 | 5.94 | 67 | 6.30 | Hybrid regime |
Hong Kong | 80 | 5.92 | 80 | 5.92 | Hybrid regime |
Singapore | 81 | 5.89 | 82 | 5.89 | Hybrid regime |
Guatemala | 82 | 5.88 | 76 | 6.05 | Hybrid regime |
Bangladesh | 83 | 5.86 | 83 | 5.87 | Hybrid regime |
Bolivia | 84 | 5.84 | 81 | 5.92 | Hybrid regime |
Honduras | =84 | 5.84 | 88 | 5.76 | Hybrid regime |
Malawi | =84 | 5.84 | 85 | 5.84 | Hybrid regime |
Albania | 87 | 5.81 | 84 | 5.86 | Hybrid regime |
Turkey | 88 | 5.73 | 89 | 5.73 | Hybrid regime |
Ecuador | 89 | 5.72 | 87 | 5.77 | Hybrid regime |
Tanzania | 90 | 5.64 | 92 | 5.64 | Hybrid regime |
Nicaragua | 91 | 5.56 | 90 | 5.73 | Hybrid regime |
Tunisia | 92 | 5.53 | 145 | 2.79 | Hybrid regime |
Senegal | 93 | 5.51 | 95 | 5.27 | Hybrid regime |
Lebanon | 94 | 5.32 | 86 | 5.82 | Hybrid regime |
Bosnia and Hercegovina | 95 | 5.24 | 94 | 5.32 | Hybrid regime |
Uganda | 96 | 5.13 | 98 | 5.05 | Hybrid regime |
Venezuela | 97 | 5.08 | 96 | 5.18 | Hybrid regime |
Liberia | 98 | 5.07 | 97 | 5.07 | Hybrid regime |
Palestine | 99 | 4.97 | 93 | 5.44 | Hybrid regime |
Mozambique | 100 | 4.90 | 99 | 4.90 | Hybrid regime |
Cambodia | 101 | 4.87 | 100 | 4.87 | Hybrid regime |
Georgia | 102 | 4.74 | 103 | 4.59 | Hybrid regime |
Kenya | 103 | 4.71 | 101 | 4.71 | Hybrid regime |
Bhutan | 104 | 4.57 | 102 | 4.68 | Hybrid regime |
Pakistan | 105 | 4.55 | 104 | 4.55 | Hybrid regime |
Sierra Leone | 106 | 4.51 | 105 | 4.51 | Hybrid regime |
Kyrgyz Republic | 107 | 4.34 | 106 | 4.31 | Hybrid regime |
Nepal | 108 | 4.24 | 108 | 4.24 | Hybrid regime |
Mauritania | 109 | 4.17 | 115 | 3.86 | Hybrid regime |
Niger | 110 | 4.16 | 128 | 3.38 | Hybrid regime |
Armenia | 111 | 4.09 | 109 | 4.09 | Hybrid regime |
Iraq | 112 | 4.03 | 112 | 4.00 | Hybrid regime |
Burundi | 113 | 4.01 | 110 | 4.01 | Hybrid regime |
Haiti | 114 | 4.00 | 111 | 4.00 | Hybrid regime |
Egypt | 115 | 3.95 | 138 | 3.07 | Authoritarian |
Madagascar | 116 | 3.93 | 113 | 3.94 | Authoritarian |
Russia | 117 | 3.92 | 107 | 4.26 | Authoritarian |
Jordan | 118 | 3.89 | 117 | 3.74 | Authoritarian |
Nigeria | 119 | 3.83 | 123 | 3.47 | Authoritarian |
Morocco | =119 | 3.83 | 116 | 3.79 | Authoritarian |
Ethiopia | 121 | 3.79 | 118 | 3.68 | Authoritarian |
Kuwait | 122 | 3.74 | 114 | 3.88 | Authoritarian |
Fiji | 123 | 3.67 | 119 | 3.62 | Authoritarian |
Burkina Faso | 124 | 3.59 | 120 | 3.59 | Authoritarian |
Libya | 125 | 3.55 | 158 | 1.94 | Authoritarian |
Cuba | 126 | 3.52 | 121 | 3.52 | Authoritarian |
Comoros | =126 | 3.52 | 127 | 3.41 | Authoritarian |
Gabon | 128 | 3.48 | 133 | 3.29 | Authoritarian |
Togo | 129 | 3.45 | 124 | 3.45 | Authoritarian |
Algeria | 130 | 3.44 | 125 | 3.44 | Authoritarian |
Cameroon | 131 | 3.41 | 126 | 3.41 | Authoritarian |
Gambia | 132 | 3.38 | 129 | 3.38 | Authoritarian |
Angola | 133 | 3.32 | 131 | 3.32 | Authoritarian |
Oman | 134 | 3.26 | 143 | 2.86 | Authoritarian |
Swaziland | =134 | 3.26 | 141 | 2.90 | Authoritarian |
Rwanda | 136 | 3.25 | 134 | 3.25 | Authoritarian |
Kazakhstan | 137 | 3.24 | 132 | 3.30 | Authoritarian |
Qatar | 138 | 3.18 | 137 | 3.09 | Authoritarian |
Belarus | 139 | 3.16 | 130 | 3.34 | Authoritarian |
Azerbaijan | 140 | 3.15 | 135 | 3.15 | Authoritarian |
China | 141 | 3.14 | 136 | 3.14 | Authoritarian |
Cote d’Ivoire | 142 | 3.08 | 139 | 3.02 | Authoritarian |
Vietnam | 143 | 2.96 | 140 | 2.94 | Authoritarian |
Bahrain | 144 | 2.92 | 122 | 3.49 | Authoritarian |
Congo (Brazzaville) | 145 | 2.89 | 142 | 2.89 | Authoritarian |
Guinea | 146 | 2.79 | 144 | 2.79 | Authoritarian |
Zimbabwe | 147 | 2.68 | 146 | 2.64 | Authoritarian |
Djibouti | =147 | 2.68 | 154 | 2.20 | Authoritarian |
United Arab Emirates | 149 | 2.58 | 148 | 2.52 | Authoritarian |
Yemen | 150 | 2.57 | 147 | 2.64 | Authoritarian |
Tajikistan | 151 | 2.51 | 149 | 2.51 | Authoritarian |
Afghanistan | 152 | 2.48 | 150 | 2.48 | Authoritarian |
Sudan | 153 | 2.38 | 151 | 2.42 | Authoritarian |
Eritrea | 154 | 2.34 | 152 | 2.31 | Authoritarian |
Democratic Republic of Congo | 155 | 2.15 | 155 | 2.15 | Authoritarian |
Laos | 156 | 2.10 | 156 | 2.10 | Authoritarian |
Guinea-Bissau | 157 | 1.99 | 157 | 1.99 | Authoritarian |
Syria | =157 | 1.99 | 153 | 2.31 | Authoritarian |
Iran | 159 | 1.98 | 159 | 1.94 | Authoritarian |
Central African Republic | 160 | 1.82 | 162 | 1.82 | Authoritarian |
Saudi Arabia | 161 | 1.77 | 161 | 1.84 | Authoritarian |
Equatorial Guinea | =161 | 1.77 | 160 | 1.84 | Authoritarian |
Myanmar | =161 | 1.77 | 163 | 1.77 | Authoritarian |
Uzbekistan | 164 | 1.74 | 164 | 1.74 | Authoritarian |
Turkmenistan | 165 | 1.72 | 165 | 1.72 | Authoritarian |
Chad | 166 | 1.62 | 166 | 1.52 | Authoritarian |
North Korea | 167 | 1.08 | 167 | 1.08 | Authoritarian |
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit. |